Even if Dems swamp on Tuesday, their challenges will remain daunting.

Several weeks ago, Donald J. Trump asked voters to “pretend that I’m on the ballot” as they voted on or before Nov. 3. On Tuesday, of course, we will learn whether the 61 percent of Americans who disapprove of him will do so.
One can only hope.
Almost certainly, the cake is baked already, the water is running high. Indeed, aside from Trump and select toadies, the expectation at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is that Americans will likely vote their best interests in this election. As The New York Times reported, “a grim mood has set in around the White House, which has been rocked by turnover, tension among internal factions and anxiety over what happens should Republicans lose legislative control in Washington …”
The paper suggested that Trump is “an increasingly unpredictable president staring down the possibility that the Republican Party could lose both chambers of Congress” and that “some political advisers and outside Republican groups have warned the president’s aides that Mr. Trump could do more harm than good by holding rallies in battleground states with uncomfortably close races …”
But will voters prove such advisers right? Will there be a blue wave, as polls suggest?
Consider the latest accounting by The Guardian: “With Republicans clinging to a paper-thin 218–214 margin in the House and 53–47 lead in the Senate, opinion polls indicate a rising ‘blue wave.’ A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey gave Democrats an 11-point lead, 47 percent to 36 percent, on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s approval rating stood at 32 percent. Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and three US territories, and decide thousands of state legislative contests.”
The only question in the House seems to be how big of a margin Democrats will wind up with. As for the Senate, much turns on the tight races in Michigan, Iowa, Kansas and Texas, while red strongholds in Maine, Alaska, Ohio and South Carolina could also prove decisive.

Texas seems particularly compelling. Will seminarian James Talarico defy recent Texas history and clobber the morally and legally tarnished Ken Paxton in that Senate race? Given their tacit acceptance of Trump’s overwhelming moral and legal baggage, will Texans simply overlook corruption or will they choose a higher road?
Michigan, of course, is also a key race. Anti-Zionist candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is battling millions of dollars in pro-Israel Super Pac efforts as he tries to defeat former Rep. Mike Rogers to become the nation’s first Muslim U.S. Senator. The novice Democrat’s efforts got a gut-punch when his unsuccessful primary rival, Rep. Haley Stevens, endorsed Rogers.
“What our students see, what our children see and who we are as Michiganders is not hate and is not what we are getting out from our Democratic nominee right now,” Stevens said in a video posted on X.
For Jews, the Michigan race is especially problematic. Stevens represents a heavily Jewish district in suburban Detroit and is sensitive to constituent concerns there. As the Forward has reported, Stevens has slammed El-Sayed for his criticism of Israel and for not condemning a PAC ad, made by an outside group to boost his campaign, that blamed Israel for rising grocery prices. El-Sayed has shot back, invoking Stevens’ close relationship with the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC.
For Jewish voters who can’t stomach Trump, the question is a matter of realpolitik. Can they can hold their noses, figuring that El-Sayed’s hostility to Israel will make little difference among 100 senators but that tipping the higher house to the Dems would make all the difference?

Will such voters make the same call Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer made after his preferred choice, Stevens, lost to El-Sayed? Schumer, who is Jewish, pledged to “do what it takes to win,” brushing off deep disagreements with El-Sayed over Israel, Punchbowl News reported. Other issues — healthcare, the state of the economy and tariffs — matter more to Michiganders, the New York senator added.
As The New Yorker reported, prediction markets are favoring Democrats to win Senate races in North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska and Texas. The party is fighting uphill in Kansas and in Iowa but is drawing close. Even Mississippi seems in play.
“By just about any metric except the obscene, record-setting amounts of cash that Trump and a small circle of billionaires are spending to save the Republicans’ Senate majority, this fall’s contest looks like the wipeout that so many have predicted (and so often been embarrassingly wrong about) since Trump first entered politics 4,146 days ago: historically low approval ratings, an unpopular war with Iran that has led to high prices and surging inflation, corruption so flagrant that two-thirds of Americans now believe he is profiting off the Presidency,” Susan Glasser noted in The New Yorker. “Most notably, Trump’s sagging popularity is not just with Democrats and independents but with many Republicans in red states whose unwavering backing has, time and again, saved him during this insane past decade in American politics.”
And yet …
“So why, then, are so many Democrats no more than what Rahm Emanuel called, in an interview for The New Yorker’s Political Scene podcast the other day, ‘small ‘c,’ small ‘o,’ cautiously optimistic’ about their prospects for dealing Trump a decisive blow by winning the Senate?” Glasser asks.
“History suggests one obvious reason. Trump may never have been President at all if not for the Party’s fatal overconfidence about him, in 2016,” she notes.
Still, the odds look good for a blue wave to swamp Donald J. Trump on Tuesday. The question then will become: what will Dems do with that? Certainly, they’ll investigate his myriad cases of corruption. Perhaps they’ll even find grounds to impeach him yet again.
But can they turn around the inflation, the war, the tariffs and the self-aggrandizing gestures Trump has been making (his arch, his D.C. golf course, his Kennedy Center egomania, his crypto profiteering) that seem to have turned voters against him? The dog may indeed catch the car on Tuesday, but what then?



























