Donald J. Trump faces reality, whether he can mask it or not
In his 2005 novel, “Flush,” the gifted Carl Hiaasen puts some helpful words in the mouth of a mother talking to her son. “Please don’t grow up to be one of those men who lie for the sport of it …” she says. “Politicians, dictators, kings, phoney-baloney preachers-most of ‘em are men, and most of ‘em lie like rugs.”
Tonight, when Donald J. Trump takes center stage in the Capitol, he will likely demonstrate that admonition anew. No doubt, he will tell us all that the State of the Union is just fine and getting better.
But he’ll be playing to a very disappointed – and increasingly skeptical — audience. It appears that for most Americans, the evidence of their eyes, ears and lives gives the lie to Trump’s often skewed view of reality.
Only 39 percent of Americans approve of the way the president is handling his job, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released on Sunday. Trump’s approval rating now stands at 60 percent negative, including 47 percent who say they strongly disapprove.
Worse, six in 10 Americans think the state of the union has declined from a year ago, according to another survey, the Marist Poll. More than half — 53% — of Americans say Trump’s policies have had a mostly negative personal impact on them, notched up from 49% last April. And a stunning 78% of Americans believe we face a serious threat to democracy under Trump.
“Americans have soured on the president across demographics; but, among young voters in particular, Trump’s approval ratings have fallen,” reports The Hill. “Immigration, similarly, stands out as an issue on which Americans are increasingly losing faith in the president’s vision.”
A recent CNN poll, conducted by SSRS, shows Trump’s approval rating fell 11 points from last year — from 47 percent to 36 percent. And The Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos and NPR/PBS/Marist Poll found Trump’s approval rating down 6 points from shortly after taking office. Both polls found 39 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, down from 45 percent shortly after he took office.
As The Washington Post reported, the last time Trump’s disapproval touched 60 percent was shortly after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the same building where Trump will speak.
When people were quizzed about specific issues in the Post poll, Trump fared even worse. For instance, 65 percent of those polled pan his handling of inflation, 64 percent give thumbs down on tariffs and 62 percent find him coming up short in handling foreign affairs. And nearly half, 48 percent, say the economy has gotten worse under Trump.
Of course, the split along partisan lines remains stark. Some 85 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s job performance while 94 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of independents disapprove. The figures mirror those of a poll from last October.
Even with the declines, it’s an enduring mystery that so many Americans fault Trump on details but support him overall. How can they be so seemingly foolish?
Political scientists point to irrational factors. “Cognitive dissonance theory predicts that the act of voting for a candidate leads to a more favorable opinion of the candidate in the future,” academics writing in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics told us years ago.
In other words, when voters are invested in a president, they have a hard time admitting they were wrong. And partisan stickiness tends to worsen the dug-in mentality.
If past is prologue – and if Trump’s mismanagement persists – the president’s popularity could slide still further over time – but that’s an open question. While academics at the University of Texas have reported that declines in approval are common as presidents’ terms wear on, Trump started with an historically low base.
On average, the Texas academics report, presidents in the past have enjoyed a 66 percent approval rating when starting office. That drops to 53 percent by the end of the first term. Presidents serving a second term average a beginning approval rating of 55.5 percent, which falls to 47 percent by the end of office.
Of course, just how much further Trump’s standing can sink is questionable. He may continue to hover at the 39-41 percent level with his traditional base holding firm. “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?” Trump joked in a 2016 campaign appearance. “It’s, like, incredible.”
As a talented huckster, he may also think he can bluster his way through any slide. So far, Trump’s reaction to the dismal polling has been to deflect, attack and undermine the news. As Politico reported, White House spokesman Davis R. Ingle reached back to Election Day in 2024 for his response.
“The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda,” Ingle said. “The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world.”
Recall, however, that Trump won back then with less than half the popular vote, 49.8 percent. He garnered the votes of 77.3 million Americans to Kamala Harris’s 75 million.
Trump on Monday responded with his usual bravado and denials.
“I had polls for the election that showed I was going to get swamped, and I won in a landslide,” Trump said during a ceremony at the White House. “They were fake polls. I saw [a fake poll] today, that I’m at 40 percent. I’m not at 40 percent. I’m at much higher than that. I mean I’d love to run against anybody. The real polls say you’d kill anybody, it wouldn’t even be close.”
Just how poorly he will continue to fare in public sentiment will turn on how ineptly he continues to do his job. Regardless of how much molasses he pours on Tuesday night, prospects for the GOP are dim for the midterm elections, even if Trump tries to pervert the results. For most of us — who are onto Trump’s game — those prospects bode well.